Meteorologists and mammals predict El Nino
LA JOLLA, California -
"An El Nino basically is where there is a warming of the sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific," said Stefanie Sullivan, meteorologist intern with the National Weather Service. "Winds that move across the equator weaken and so that warm water is allowed to drift from the western side of the Pacific near Indonesia and Australia towards South America."
When that happens, the jet streams that usually bring storms to our coast during the winter change position.
"So that causes more storms to track over Southern California than in a typical year," said Sullivan.
Climate Researcher Dr. David Pierce works in the Physical Oceanography Department of Scripps Institution of Oceanography. The way an El Nino moves weather systems around he described as a ripple effect.
"Kind of like how you drop a rock in a stream it makes ripples that you can see quite a long way away," he said. "The storms actually make ripples that steer weather systems and they can move other systems that give us rain."
It has been years since California has seen a major El Nino. The biggest one was more than 20 years ago, when we saw record breaking rain. He says what is being predicted is not of that size.
"Right now it looks like it will be a moderate event, not a huge event like we had in 1982-1983 or 1997-1998," Pierce said. "There is no indications of that but these moderate events can still influence our weather here in San Diego."
Interestingly, it seems some marine mammals can also predict an El Nino. Marine biologists have seen a number of sick and thin seals and sea lions this winter. Usually, it happens when the fish the pinnipeds feed on have moved elsewhere to find the plant life they eat.
"What happens during an El Nino is that the water gets warmer but also the surface layer gets deeper. That means the nutrients are far from the sunshine and there is little productivity going on," said Dr. Jay Barlow, marine mammal biologist with the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration's Southwest Fisheries Science Center. "That's bad because productivity generates food which generates the forage species the sea lions feed on."
Barlow said one of the best predictors for whether we are in for an El Nino may come some time next month.
"If we see a very low number of pups when the counts are done in July, my guess is that will indicate it will be a very severe El Nino," he said.
When that happens, the jet streams that usually bring storms to our coast during the winter change position.
"So that causes more storms to track over Southern California than in a typical year," said Sullivan.
Climate Researcher Dr. David Pierce works in the Physical Oceanography Department of Scripps Institution of Oceanography. The way an El Nino moves weather systems around he described as a ripple effect.
"Kind of like how you drop a rock in a stream it makes ripples that you can see quite a long way away," he said. "The storms actually make ripples that steer weather systems and they can move other systems that give us rain."
It has been years since California has seen a major El Nino. The biggest one was more than 20 years ago, when we saw record breaking rain. He says what is being predicted is not of that size.
"Right now it looks like it will be a moderate event, not a huge event like we had in 1982-1983 or 1997-1998," Pierce said. "There is no indications of that but these moderate events can still influence our weather here in San Diego."
Interestingly, it seems some marine mammals can also predict an El Nino. Marine biologists have seen a number of sick and thin seals and sea lions this winter. Usually, it happens when the fish the pinnipeds feed on have moved elsewhere to find the plant life they eat.
"What happens during an El Nino is that the water gets warmer but also the surface layer gets deeper. That means the nutrients are far from the sunshine and there is little productivity going on," said Dr. Jay Barlow, marine mammal biologist with the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration's Southwest Fisheries Science Center. "That's bad because productivity generates food which generates the forage species the sea lions feed on."
Barlow said one of the best predictors for whether we are in for an El Nino may come some time next month.
"If we see a very low number of pups when the counts are done in July, my guess is that will indicate it will be a very severe El Nino," he said.
